Taenia solium taeniasis and cysticercosis: extinction or outbreak

Abstract Taenia solium taeniasis and cysticercosis are neglected zoonotic diseases that affect human health economies of developing countries. In this work, we formulate analyze deterministic continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) stochastic models to determine parameters drive the likelihood their extinction. The basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ R 0 is computed by next generation matrix approach, sensitivity index each parameter in derived normalized forward diseases’ extinction multitype branching process. analysis shows humans with taeniasis, infectious pork eggs environment play an important role transmission cysticercosis, model exhibits bifurcation at $$R_0=1$$ = 1 . This implies $$R_0<1$$ < a sufficient condition eliminate cysticercosis. For CTMC model, probability high if emerge from there outbreak either or environment. To control intervention strategies should focus on improving hygiene sanitation for reducing shedding rate environment, inspection acquiring spraying insecticides killing